NFL straight-up picks, Week 12: A holiday weekend of coin flip games, including Jaguars-Texans (2024)

It’s not a great sign this column has the worst winning percentage of our three breakout picks. Huh. That just means 2023 has been lowkey great for underdogs, which makes sense in a year where everyone kinda stinks.

There’s some risk involved backing Detroit. The Lions looked vulnerable against an overmatched rival last week when Jared Goff tossed three interceptions. His team trailed by two scores late before the Chicago Bears realized, oh yeah, they had nothing to gain by winning and faded away to boost their draft stock. On the other hand, Jordan Love’s young targets rose up and lifted him to a 23-20 win over the Los Angeles Chargers that doubled as arguably the first-year starter’s most complete game.

The Lions won’t overlook Green Bay — especially not on Thanksgiving, the holiday they own but rarely have been good on. The Packers lack the run defense to slow David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, so even if Goff struggles again it may not matter. On the other side of the ball, Love will be without rookie safety valve tight end Luke Musgrave and veteran running back engine Aaron Jones against a defense that prides itself on playing like a goblin army.

So yeah, it’s a divisional rivalry and anything can happen. But most outcomes in this game point to a big Lions win.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 8-3 (.727)

Which Jaguars team is going to show up, the one that just beat the brakes off the Tennessee Titans or the ones that had its ashes scattered to the wind vs. the San Francisco 49ers a week earlier? Which Texans team is going to show up, the one that stands as the “one” in the Carolina Panthers’ 1-9 record or the one that boat-raced these Jags on the road in Week 3?

Jacksonville has the more talented roster. Houston has, amazingly, the higher ceiling quarterback and home field advantage. This is a coin toss game in a field filled with them. All those question marks in the picks sheet above? Those are all the games I struggled with and include:

• New Orleans Saints-Atlanta Falcons (all I know here is that Taysom Hill will score a touchdown and briefly infuriate the state of Georgia)
• New England Patriots-New York Giants (more on that below)
• Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals (how much better than Jake Browning is Kenny Pickett, really?)
• and Los Angeles Rams-Arizona Cardinals

So yeah, rough week for confident picks.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 10-1 (.909)

This is not an overreaction to Tommy DeVito pulling a three touchdown performance out of a hat. No, my friends, it’s an overreaction to former Bill Belichick assistants finding ways to beat him in recent years.

Josh McDaniels went 3-0 against the Patriots while shambling to a 17-33 record against anyone else. Matt Patricia was 1-0 against Belichick and 12-29-1 against anyone else. Brian Flores? 4-2. For whatever reason, guys who learn under the eight-time NFL champion divine ways to beat him.

Enter Brian Daboll, 2022’s coach of the year. He’s already proven he can get his team up for meaningful, winnable games. New York, once on pace to be one of the least competitive teams in modern NFL history, toppled the Washington Commanders 31-19 last week. The Patriots aren’t significantly better than Washington; both bring depleted defenses and forgettable offenses to town.

Want to hear a truly depressing sentence for Patriots fans? “If Sam Howell couldn’t beat this 2023 Giants team, I don’t see how Mac Jones can.” Woof. That’s a tremendously low bar and the New England offense is in zero danger of bonking its head against it. Oh well, lose this game and essentially lock in a top three pick.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 9-2 (.818)